Devon and Cornwall will be in drought next year if this winter is very dry, the Environment Agency has warned.
The environmental regulator has released its Drought Prospects Report, examining the wet weather needed through the winter to ensure the country’s current low water levels recover by spring 2026.
Three scenarios have been created, each looking at the impact in March on the southwest counties if 100%, 80% or 60% of expected rainfall happens.
Right now, Devon and Cornwall are in 'normal’ status. If 100% of expected rainfall happens, that will continue. However, if 80% of rainfall occurs, that will change to prolonged dry weather status. Should only 60% of rainfall, both counties will be in drought. There is only a 2% to 6% chance of that situation occurring.
If there is a very dry winter with 60% of average rainfall, there would be reduced water for irrigating crops, reduced vegetable production and an impact on grass growth. Farmers should decide if they need to adjust their cropping patterns to include more drought tolerant crops or varieties which do not need as much irrigation. They should also look to fill their reservoirs as soon as possible and work with their neighbours to share water rights, or share water, where possible.
Drought is only over when water levels are fully replenished, and England has seen below average rainfall for eight out of ten months so far this year. This means that flooding in drought is possible, including flash floods as dry soils struggle to soak up intense downpours.
The Met Office has indicated a higher-than-usual likelihood of dry conditions over three months from November to January. This could cause drought conditions to worsen, leading to hosepipe bans, significant pressures on the environment and a risk to crop yields.
The Environment Agency is urging the public to continue to play their part and use water wisely through winter, in anticipation of another drought year.
Director of water at the Environment Agency, Helen Wakeham, said: “There will be a drought next year, unless we get sustained rainfall through the winter.
“The severity of that drought will depend both on the weather and the actions we take over winter following this very dry year.
“The public have been brilliant in using a little less water this summer and following the restrictions in some parts of the country. I would urge people to continue to be as efficient as possible with their water use this winter - even if it is raining outside. Our wildlife, our rivers and our public water supplies depend on it.”
Water Minister, Emma Hardy said: “I welcome the recent rainfall but the prolonged dry weather throughout this year continues to pose risks to public water supplies, farming, and the environment. We continue to work with the National Drought Group and water companies to maintain supplies for communities across the country.
Will Lang, chief meteorologist at the Met Office, said: "While it's not possible to definitively forecast weather for the next three months, the chances of a dry period are higher than normal.
“A more average three-month period for rainfall is still the most likely scenario. It's important to note that rainfall patterns in England can be variable, so while some may see more rainfall, others will see less, possibly giving limited relief from long-standing dry conditions."
The Environment Agency will continue to lead the nation’s response to drought. The regulator will also conduct enhanced monitoring, increase checks on abstractors, and continue to work with water companies on preparing for drought next spring.
Share