The likely area of arable crops for harvest 2016 is up slightly compared with 2015, according to AHDB’s Early Bird Survey of GB farmers’ planting intentions.

The total area of arable crops is estimated at 4.53Mha, up 12,000ha on the final June Census Results for 2015. Slightly larger areas of spring barley and oats are responsible for the anticipated increase in total area.

There is little change to the wheat area compared with 2015 and the winter barley and oilseed rape areas are forecast lower year-on-year.

AHDB Cereals & Oilseeds Logo colour_275_200Key AHDB findings for 2016

Wheat similar to last year at 1.8Mha

Winter barley down 4% to 424,000ha

Spring barley up 10% to 727,000ha*

Oats up 13% to 148,000ha

Oilseed rape down 14% to 565,000ha

Pulses up 15% to 242,000ha

Brenda Mullan, AHDB acting senior analyst, said: “For next year’s harvest, we are looking at a similar area planted to wheat as 2015, with anecdotal comments suggesting that the area of spring wheat is rising within the total wheat area.

“It appears that the GB barley area is on the rise again this year but with less winter barley planted so far and spring planting still some time off, the true changes in the total barley area remain to be seen.”

The annual autumn survey, based on submissions from a team of agronomists assessing more than 250,000ha of arable land across GB, provides the industry with a first snapshot of national planting decisions.

Submissions take into account growers’ planting intentions as well as crops already drilled and cropping changes on individual farms in GB are taken as representative of national UK changes.

In perhaps the most striking finding, the oilseed rape area is expected to decline in 2016 for the fourth consecutive season to 565,000ha.

Ms Mullan said: “A drop in the area planted to oilseed rape is not a surprise, given the profitability challenges with this crop in recent times. It’s likely that the restriction of the use of neonicotinoid seed treatments has also deterred planting.

“Our experience of examining the results of the Early Bird Survey against actual areas later in the season has shown that, in general, the survey results give a good snapshot of areas, particularly for key autumn sown crops in the UK.”

The Early Bird Survey is led by the Andersons Centre, supported by the Association of Independent Crop Consultants and AHDB Cereals & Oilseeds.